Implications of hotspot policing strategies on crime displacement in North-rift counties of Kenya

Abstract

The crimes of banditry and cattle rustling have persisted in North-Rift Kenya. To address this crime challenge, many policing initiatives summarised as hotspot policing have been implemented. While hotspot policing strategies may have had positive impact on crime in urban areas, little is known about the impact of these approaches on crime displacement especially in rural settings that have a history of banditry and cattle rustling. The purpose of this study was to analyse the implications of hotspot policing strategies on crime displacement. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the implications of disarmament, dusk-to-dawn curfews, and increased presence of security agencies on crime displacement in North-Rift Counties of Kenya. Relevant scholarly literature were examined to understand the hotspot policing and crime displacement phenomena. This study was guided by the geometric theory of crime and the theory of state society relations; strong societies and weak states. This study employed both qualitative and quantitative approaches through a descriptive survey design. The target population was 1,360,716 residents of the counties of NorthRift Counties of Turkana, Samburu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Baringo, and West Pokot. Krejcie and Morgan (1970) table for determining sample size was used to attain a sample population of 384 primary respondents. Purposive sampling was used to select the counties and sub counties. Random sampling was used to select two division in each sub-county. Proportionate sampling was used to distribute the sample population across all the selected divisions. The respondents were randomly selected taking into consideration gender balance while key informants were purposively selected. Structured Questionnaire was administered on primary respondents while Focus Group Discussion was administered on key respondents. Face, content, and criterion validity of the research instruments were ascertained. Reliability of the instruments were evaluated through Cronbach’s Alpha, and the obtained coefficients, all above 0.7, confirmed its adequacy. Quantitative data was analysed using inferential and descriptive statistics aided by the Statistical Package for Social Science version 28 while qualitative data was analysed thematically. The study adhered to ethical standards of conducting social science research as well as other legal requirements. The result from quantitative data was illustrated using tables and figures while qualitative data was presented thematically. The study found a statistically significant and positive association between disarmament (χ²=4972.584a, N=378, p<.0001), dusk-to-dawn curfews (χ²=3332.545a, N=378, p<.0001), and increased presence of security agencies on crime displacement (χ²=5292.000a, N=378, p<.0001) in NorthRift Counties of Kenya. The study concluded that all the three hotspot policing strategies significantly contributed to crime displacement across the study areas. The study recommends that the hotspot policing strategies should be well dispersed across the entire crime hotspot zones and integrated with community led policing, intelligence led policing as well socio-economic development strategies. The study's conclusions are expected to inform government, enforcement agencies, scholars, and other stakeholders in designing mechanisms to improve the hotspot policing strategies. Moreover, this study is expected to inform government, policing and security experts, and law enforcement on the dynamics associated with hotspot policing strategies as implemented in the study areas. The study extends Criminology research on the implications of hotspot policing strategies to rural crime hotspots.