Effect of Price Changes on Green Gram Yield in Tharaka South Sub-County, Tharaka Nithi County, Kenya

Abstract

Abstract: Kenyans in Arid and Semiarid Lands (ASALs), rely heavily on green gram as a source of nutrition, earnings, and soil improvement, but yield has not kept up with growth in demand. Due to this, the Kenyan government's declared goal of improving food access, diversity, and nutritional status has been hampered in these areas. In comparison to the worldwide and national averages of 0.73 mt/ha and 0.67 mt/ha, respectively, the yield in Tharaka South Sub-County is still too low at 0.56 mt/ha, considerably below the crop's estimated 1.5 mt/ha national potential. Green gram yield is mainly constrained by fluctuating producer prices and rational producers may only improve yields in response to a price increase. This study aimed at analysing the green gram yield responsiveness to the commodity’s price changes in Tharaka South Sub-County, Tharaka Nithi County, Kenya for the period 2002-2021. The study employed descriptive research design and used secondary data. The data on seasonal green gram price and yield was collected from Tharaka Nithi County Department of Agriculture and analysed using linear regression model and qualitative methods. It was observed that the trends of green gram yield and price have been fluctuating over the study period. The green gram yield obtained during the October November December (OND) season was higher than the yield obtained during the March April May season (MAM). As portrayed by the economic law of demand and supply, green gram price during OND season was lower than the price offered during MAM season. Further the findings of the model showed that price changes explained 25.3% of the variables affecting green gram yield. Additionally, the findings of the regression analysis revealed that yield has been increasing at a decreasing rate as price increases by 1%. A 1% increase in price was associated with 0.47% decrease in yield probably due to reuse of seed. The study concluded that increasing green gram yield requires a supportive price, but this is not a sufficient condition but other support to reduce production risks should be provided. Further, access to certified seed should be enhanced to reduce chances of seed recycling or reuse. The study recommends the setting up of a functional agricultural commodity market for structured marketing of green gram as well as supporting production for sustainable yield.