Statistical Modelling of Staff Survival Time in Service at Chuka University

Abstract

Staff attrition is identified as a major challenge affecting the education sector globally and in Kenya. The main objective of this study is to develop a statistical model of staff survival time in service at Chuka University. The study investigated seven covariates (Gender, age group, Marital Status, Terms of employment, staff Category, staff Highest Qualifications and Job group) on the outcome variable which is staff survival time in Service at Chuka University. In this research, survival analysis methods that were used are the Kaplan Meier and log rank test, the Cox-proportional hazard model and the Accelerated Failure Time models (Weibull AFT Model). The cox proportional regression model was employed to study the effect of the covariates on the survival time of the staff at Chuka University. To compare the survival rate of different groups of staff, the study employed the use of Kaplan Meier Estimator. To test if a difference exists in survival time between two or more independent groups, this study applied log-rank test. The results on the Univariate Cox PH Model showed that the covariates, gender, age group, terms of employment, staff category, highest qualification and Job group were statistically significant at 5% level of significance except for the Marital status which was insignificant associated with the survival time of staff at Chuka University. The study was able to predict the probability of survival of staff using the covariates. The findings from the study showed that the male staff have high survival probability compared to their female counterparts: the younger employees between the age of 18-25 stay in service for fewer years compared to those between the age of 26-35 and 36-50. Further results indicated that, The Weibull AFT model give the best model fit with more precise estimates that had small standard errors compared to the Cox Proportional Hazard Model. These findings will be beneficial for the policy makers to review the policies related to staff retention at different Universities in Kenya and more especially to the Chuka University, Human Resource Management to make informed decisions and implement strategies to improve staff retention and more effective recruitment strategies. These policies include Professional Development Programs: Universities may offer ongoing training and development opportunities, such as workshops, certifications, and seminars, to help staff improve their skills and advance their careers. Also Universities can offer competitive salaries, performance- based bonuses, and comprehensive benefits packages (health insurance, retirement plans, tuition waivers) to retain staff.