Browsing by Author "Kornel Czimber"

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    Climate Change as a Double-Edged Sword: Exploring the Potential of Environmental Recovery to Foster Stability in Darfur, Sudan
    (Climate Journal, 2025-03-18) Abdalrahman Ahmed; Brian Rotich; Kornel Czimber
    The Darfur conflict, which emerged in the early 21st century, represents a multi- faceted crisis driven by socio-political and environmental factors, with resource scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, playing a pivotal role in intensifying tensions between agricultural and pastoral communities. While climate change is typically associated with adverse environmental outcomes, an analysis of data spanning four decades (1980–2023) reveals a contrasting trend of increased precipitation, enhanced vegetation, and decreased drought frequency in recent years. This research explores the potential of these positive environmental changes to mitigate resource-based conflicts and foster political stability in Darfur as improved environmental conditions are posited to create a foundation for conflict resolution and sustainable peacebuilding. The present study integrates trends in the Academic Editor: Nektarios Kourgialas Received: 29 January 2025 Revised: 2 March 2025 Accepted: 5 March 2025 Published: 18 March 2025 Citation: Ahmed, A.; Rotich, B.; Czimber, K. Climate Change as a Double-Edged Sword: Exploring the Potential of Environmental Recovery to Foster Stability in Darfur, Sudan. Climate 2025, 13, 63. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/cli13030063 Copyright: © 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/). Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to examine these shifts. EVI data, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at a 250 m resolution, was used to assess large-scale vegetation patterns in arid and semi-arid landscapes. The Autoregressive Integrated Mov- ing Average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast future precipitation scenarios up to the year 2034, enhancing the understanding of long-term climatic trends. Data processing and analysis utilized advanced tools, including Google Earth Engine (GEE), ArcGIS Pro (version 3.4), and R software (version 4.3.2). The findings reveal a significant (33.19%) improvement in natural vegetation cover between 2000 and 2023, with degraded and unchanged areas accounting for 1.95% and 64.86%, respectively. This finding aligns with a marked increase in annual precipitation and a reduction in drought intensity over the study period. Historical SPEI analysis showed persistent drought events between 1980 and 2012, followed by a notable decline in drought frequency and severity from 2013 to 2024. Precipitation projections suggest a stable trend, potentially supporting further vegetation recovery in the region. These environmental improvements are preliminarily linked to climate-change-induced increases in precipitation and reductions in drought severity. This study’s findings contribute to a nuanced understanding of the interplay between environ- mental dynamics and socio-political stability in Darfur, offering actionable insights for policy interventions aimed at fostering sustainable peace and resilience in the region.
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    Land use/land cover changes due to gold mining in the Singida region, central Tanzania: environmental and socio‑economic implications
    (Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2025-03-25) Azaria Stephano Lameck; Brian Rotich; Abdalrahman Ahmed ·; Harison Kipkulei; Silvester Raymond Mnyawi; Kornel Czimber
    This study explored the land use and land cover (LULC) changes (1995–2023) in the gold min- ing hotspots of Mang’onyi, Sambaru, and Londoni in the Singida region of Tanzania. The study integrated remote sensing (RS) to evaluate the LULC transi- tions with social survey assessments (83 respond- ents) to determine the resident’s perceptions of the environmental, social, and economic implications of mining bridging technical data with socio-economic realities. Supervised classification of Landsat images was conducted using the random forest (RF) classifier to generate LULC maps with five classes (bareland, agricultural land, forest, built-up, and shrubs and grasses), followed by an analysis to identify LULC change trends. The results showed an overall increase in agricultural land 168.51 km2 (587.55%), bareland 7.70 km2 (121.45%), and built-up areas 0.55 km2 (134.15%), while forest and shrubs and grasses areas declined by 97.67 km2 (− 72.59%) and 79.09 km2 (− 43.49%), respectively. A social survey assessment revealed residents perceived environmental (defor- estation, biodiversity loss, land degradation, water, air, soil pollution), social (occupational hazards, land use conflicts, negative effects on livelihoods and culture, discrimination, child labor, community displacement), and economic (improved housing, infrastructural development, job creation, economy boost, improved access to services) impacts result- ing from mining activities. Our findings underscore
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    Land use/land cover changes due to gold mining in the Singida region, central Tanzania: environmental and socio‑economic implications
    (Environ Monit Assess, 2025-03-17) Azaria Stephano Lameck; Brian Rotich; Abdalrahman Ahmed; Harison Kipkulei; Silvester Raymond Mnyawi; Kornel Czimber
    This study explored the land use and land cover (LULC) changes (1995–2023) in the gold min- ing hotspots of Mang’onyi, Sambaru, and Londoni in the Singida region of Tanzania. The study integrated remote sensing (RS) to evaluate the LULC transi- tions with social survey assessments (83 respond- ents) to determine the resident’s perceptions of the environmental, social, and economic implications of mining bridging technical data with socio-economic realities. Supervised classification of Landsat images was conducted using the random forest (RF) classifier to generate LULC maps with five classes (bareland, agricultural land, forest, built-up, and shrubs and grasses), followed by an analysis to identify LULC change trends. The results showed an overall increase in agricultural land 168.51 km2 (587.55%), bareland 7.70 km2 (121.45%), and built-up areas 0.55 km2 (134.15%), while forest and shrubs and grasses areas declined by 97.67 km2 (− 72.59%) and 79.09 km2 (− 43.49%), respectively. A social survey assessment revealed residents perceived environmental (defor- estation, biodiversity loss, land degradation, water, air, soil pollution), social (occupational hazards, land use conflicts, negative effects on livelihoods and culture, discrimination, child labor, community displacement), and economic (improved housing, infrastructural development, job creation, economy boost, improved access to services) impacts result- ing from mining activities. Our findings underscore