Browsing by Author "Dennis Muriithi"

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A Machine Learning Approach for Prediction of Surgical Outcomes in Elective Surgery
(American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 2024-08-20) Dennis Muriithi; Virginia Mwangi
The aim of this research was to design a Machine Learning (ML) approaches to predict surgical outcome associated with perioperative risks factors among patients undergoing elective surgery. The research employed descriptive cross-sectional survey and a sample size of 292 patients. Only adult patients undergoing elective surgery were considered. Machine Learning (ML) Algorithm such as Logistic regression, Support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors and random forest were used to provide insights into how different factors such as patient related perioperative risk, procedure related perioperative risk and health system related perioperative risk influence the likelihood of successful surgical outcome. The study found that Random Forest model achieved the highest cross validation accuracy of 100%, which means it correctly classified all data points in the test set. It implies that the random Forest model was the most suitable for classifying surgical outcome among elective surgery patient at Chuka County Referral Hospital. It had a Kappa of 1 indicating a perfect agreement between its predictions and the ground truth in comparison with other algorithms. In addition, Random Forest model achieves a perfect score (1.0) for sensitivity, precision, F1-Score, and balanced accuracy. This suggests that the model is doing extremely well at correctly classifying both positive and negative cases. Availability of main surgical supplies (health system related perioperative risk factors) had the highest score indicating that it was more important factor for the models predictions than other perioperative risk factors. In this study, the Machine Learning analysis identified unknown parameters associated with successful surgical outcome. An application of Machine Learning algorithms as a decision support tool could enable the medical health practitioners to predict the surgical outcome of patients undergoing elective surgery and consequently optimize and personalize clinical management of patient.
A Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Malaria Occurrence in Kenya
(American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 2024-08-24) Dennis Muriithi; Victor Wandera Lumumba; Mark Okongo
For many years’ malaria has been a health public concern in Kenya as well as many parts of Africa and other parts of the world. The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a supervised machine learning model to predict malaria occurrence (final malaria test results) in Kenya. The study investigated twelve predictor variables on the outcome variable (malaria test results), where five machine learning models namely; k-nearest neighbors, support vector machines, random forest, tree bagging, and boosting, were estimated. During the model evaluation, random forest emerged as the best overall model in the classification and prediction of final malaria test results. The model attained a higher classification accuracy of 97.33%, sensitivity of 71.1%, specificity of 98.4%, balanced accuracy of 84.7% and an area under the curve of 98.3%. From the final model, the presence of plasmodium falciparum emerged most important feature, followed by region, endemic zone and anemic level. The feature with the least importance in predicting final malaria test results was having mosquito nets. In conclusion, employing Machine learning algorithms enhances early detection, optimizing resource allocation for interventions, and ultimately reducing the incidence and impact of malaria in the Kenya. The study recommends allocation of resources and funds to areas with the presence of plasmodium falciparum, region susceptible to malaria, endemic zones and anemic prone areas.
A Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Malaria Occurrence in Kenya
(American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 2024-08-20) Dennis Muriithi; Victor Wandera Lumumba; Mark Okongo
For many years’ malaria has been a health public concern in Kenya as well as many parts of Africa and other parts of the world. The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a supervised machine learning model to predict malaria occurrence (final malaria test results) in Kenya. The study investigated twelve predictor variables on the outcome variable (malaria test results), where five machine learning models namely; k-nearest neighbors, support vector machines, random forest, tree bagging, and boosting, were estimated. During the model evaluation, random forest emerged as the best overall model in the classification and prediction of final malaria test results. The model attained a higher classification accuracy of 97.33%, sensitivity of 71.1%, specificity of 98.4%, balanced accuracy of 84.7% and an area under the curve of 98.3%. From the final model, the presence of plasmodium falciparum emerged most important feature, followed by region, endemic zone and anemic level. The feature with the least importance in predicting final malaria test results was having mosquito nets. In conclusion, employing Machine learning algorithms enhances early detection, optimizing resource allocation for interventions, and ultimately reducing the incidence and impact of malaria in the Kenya. The study recommends allocation of resources and funds to areas with the presence of plasmodium falciparum, region susceptible to malaria, endemic zones and anemic prone areas.