A spatial multi-criteria analysis of land use, land cover and climate changes on wildlife ecosystems planning and management in Meru conservation area

Abstract

Protected areas are recognized as among the most effective tools that have protected the wildlife species from extinction and human induced threats. However, despite the establishment and spread of these protected areas in most parts of the world, wildlife numbers and their habitats have declined drastically due to land use land cover changes (LULCs) coupled by climate variability in the past decades. Protected areas and their buffer zones have been converted to settlement areas, grazing fields and farms by people living around these parks and reserves as a coping mechanism for declining resources at the expense of wildlife populations and their ecosystems. The study was carried out at Meru National Park (MNP) and Mwingi National Reserve (MNR) to establish changes in land use, land cover and climate variability over time and their implications on wildlife ecosystems. The study specifically sought to establish changes in land use land cover, establish climate change over time, and determine the effectiveness of the existing management plan and identifying the adaptation strategies that are being used as mitigation to climate change. To achieve these objectives, the study used remotely sensing data from Landsat satellite images of 1985 to 2015 together with physical, demographic data and questionnaires were used in post classification analysis using ArchGIS to analyze the outcome of different land use practices. The results showed a rapid decline in forest and shrub land in the study area by 14.1% and 37.8%, respectively while grassland and bareland tend to have increased to 27% and 16.2% respectively over time. From the Pearson correlation test, there was significant positive correlation between grassland and bareland (r = 0.860, p=0.140), significant negative correlation between forest and bareland (r = -0.692, p=308) and between shrubland and bareland (r = -0.631,p=369). Climate variability in MNP and MNR had impacts on wildlife ecosystems as established during by the strong negative correlation observed (r = -0.766, p=0.05). Multi-criteria decision making analysis was applied as a planning tool to establish the effectiveness of the management plans. This analysis incorporated the value measurement, goal setting and outranking. In addition to guided observations, semi structured questionnaires, and interview schedule were administered to the local community and institutions respectively to acquire relevant data on establishing the adaptation strategies for climate change mitigation by the wildlife managers and local communities in the study areas. The study established that continuous increase in human wildlife conflicts, encroachment into the Protected Areas (PAs), and low support of conservation programs by community are indicators of non effectiveness in the management plan. More so, there are various adaptation strategies to mitigate changes in climate by local community and wildlife managers. These included fencing of Protected Areas (PAs), introduction of irrigation, encroachment in protected areas and amendments of laws, policies and institutional structure. Both MNP and MNR have undergone significant changes in land use land cover over the years which have over time affected the wildlife populations and their ecosystems. These changes are likely to have been brought about by inevitable climate change which has altered rainfall distribution leading to droughts that have hindered vegetation growth. On the other hand, increasing human population by 57.4% from 1980 around these protected areas has over the years contributed towards land cover from their interaction with land through activities that are meant to provide socioeconomic livelihoods such as farming and livestock keeping. In view of these findings, the study recommends an integrated planning of protected areas in view of the changing land use land cover and climatic regimes in the study areas.