Access and Utilization of Seasonal Climate Forecast Among Small Holder Farmers in Masinga Sub-County, Machakos County, Kenya

Abstract

Climate change in Kenya and other East African countries is expected to manifest itself in shifts in seasons and increased frequencies of extreme weather events, such as droughts, heavy rainfall and associated flooding. As climate continues to change, seasonal forecasts will become even more crucial as one way of informing farmers of short-term weather dynamics, impending seasons of below- or above-normal rainfall and extreme rainfall events. Kenyan government has invested considerable resources into the development of understanding and technologies to meet the expected demands of its citizens for improved climate forecasts. Regrettably, many of the benefits of these investments have not yet been realized as farmers do not use this forecasts information to make agricultural sound decisions, hence benefits to the nation are considerably less than they might be otherwise. This therefore called for a study to evaluate the access and utilization of seasonal climate forecast among households in Masinga Sub County, Machakos County in Kenya. A cross-sectional survey research design was used. A systematic random sampling procedure was employed to select 274 respondents in the four sub locations of Masinga Sub County. Structured questionnaires were used to elicit required information from the respondents. Data was analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Pearson‟s correlation coefficient was utilized to establish relationship between some socioeconomic characteristics and utilization of climate forecasts. Results indicated that 82% of the respondents were able to access climate forecasts through radio, and television. Majority of the respondents indicated that their major interest was to know the start and the end of rain (63%). Radio was the major source of climate forecast (38%) with 90% of the respondents getting information from radio and 60% from television. Above 60% of the respondents indicated that the climate forecast information received from dissemination channels was inaccurate. Over 60% indicated that bulletins used very difficult and complicated language while chief “Barraza‟s” was considered to use simple language (56%). Inadequate extension officers (84%) was a limitation to access to climate forecast information. Majority of the respondents (54%) use both indigenous knowledge on climate forecast and seasonal climate forecasts, however 61% stated that they were very unsatisfied with scientific forecasts. Inaccuracy of forecasts (98%) was a key factor affecting adoption of climate forecast. Over 80% of the respondents felt that climate forecasts cover a wide area making it difficult for them to relate the climate reports to their specific local areas. It was noted that seasonal climate forecast information given by the relevant institutions are coarse thus providing little or no detail on the local characteristics of a season, and do not reflect the localized pattern of rainfall. Moreover, difficult terminologies used in climate forecasting limit their usability and usefulness to farmers and other users. Majority of farmers lack confidence in forecasts issued by KMD and perceive them to be incorrect. Most of the climate forecasts broadcasts are done at the wrong time of day, when the households were out in the fields or in their daily activities. This hinders usability of climate forecasts by the targeted groups. The study further established a significant relationship between land, income, age, education level and gender with utilization of climate forecast. Therefore, based on the major findings of this research it is recommended that, (i) climate forecasts should be downscaled into regional level and should be location specific to increase utility (ii) disseminate climate forecast through local media in local languages so that information can reach local farmers (iii) probabilistic nature of seasonal forecasts should be given with technical guidance to help farmers interpret vii easily and respond to the forecast and (iv) climate forecasts should be issued in the evening between 6.00 p.m-9.00 p.m. to reach a large audience.